By: Dr. James Bwala
The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) are expected to fall apart in Nigeria ahead of the 2027 elections, according to the country’s political landscape. The Social Democratic Party (SDP) may become the main opposition party, but it will ultimately lose to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) by a greater margin. Internal conflicts and opposition to coalition building, especially from its governors who reject alliances with the LP and SDP, severely impair the PDP’s ability to compete. The APC’s firmly established dominance is undermined by this fragmentation.
Even though individuals like former Vice President Atiku Abubakar have tried to bring opposition forces together, a strong front against the APC is hampered by the lack of unity within the PDP and between opposition parties. Analysts stress that no party can match the APC’s political clout or electoral apparatus without strategic alliances. The SDP’s limited reach and structural flaws portend a defeat by an even greater margin than in past elections, even if it manages to garner the votes of the opposition.
In fact, Nigeria’s multiparty system is undergoing realignment as a result of the political landscape’s increasing complexity. The PDP and LP face extinction because of their disunity, while the SDP’s lone battle against the APC is unlikely to have a major impact on election results. The data makes it clear that only a unified opposition coalition has the ability to challenge the APC’s hegemony, but the current situation suggests this is unlikely to happen before 2027.
Deeply ingrained party loyalties and strategic misalignments continue to impede the possibility of a united opposition as the political landscape changes, further solidifying the APC’s path to a more resounding victory. Any opposition attempts to launch a serious challenge in 2027 are made more difficult by the APC’s well-established political apparatus and strategic partnerships, such as the fortification of the Tinubu-Shettima alliance.
It is widely acknowledged by political analysts that the All Progressives Congress (APC) is in a strategic position to use the fragmented nature of its opponents to destroy opposition forces in advance of the 2027 Nigerian elections. The current opposition is made up of a variety of groups, including former party leaders who are now against the APC, disgruntled former APC members looking for influence, and former presidential candidates who reject the APC’s governance. Given Nigeria’s past, where opposition alliances regularly fall apart due to internal conflict and conflicting goals, this lack of unity undercuts any successful coalition-building efforts.
For the time being, the APC is using its narrative of capable leadership to contrast the perceived shortcomings of the PDP, which it charges with long-term mismanagement and internal strife. By highlighting the PDP’s incapacity and factionalism, the APC builds public confidence and positions itself as Nigeria’s reliable substitute. In addition to undermining the PDP’s legitimacy, this rhetoric raises questions about any possible opposition alliance.
Essentially, the APC is positioned to crush opposition in 2027 by taking advantage of opposition fragmentation and highlighting its governance record against a split PDP, loosely LP, and undecided SDP. In the upcoming elections, the APC’s dominance will likely go uncontested due to the opposition factions’ incapacity to successfully unite.
Northern leaders are rushing to mobilize local political forces in response to their ire. However, this, too, falls short of the level of preparedness anticipated in the area. A sense of betrayal is fueled by the perception of neglect in appointments and resource distribution, which makes many Northerners feel excluded despite the North’s significant demographic and electoral power. The North’s overall political power is weakened by internal divisions stemming from poverty, insecurity, and intercommunal conflicts, which exacerbate this discontent. These divisions could therefore make it more difficult for the area to mount a united front against Tinubu and Kashim Shettima, the APC’s hegemony, or to negotiate successfully within national politics.
Demands from important subregions, like North-Central, show how political interests in the North are beginning to split. Local stakeholders are demanding that Tinubu be reelected as president in 2027 and have made their support contingent on him appointing a regional candidate to succeed him as vice president. In contrast to unity, such demands highlight the possibility of increased rivalry between Northern factions. Without careful management, this internal struggle could weaken the North’s overall power. Political disunity may therefore endanger Northern leaders’ strategic position in 2027 unless they resolve these internal issues and balance conflicting regional ambitions.
Northern Nigeria’s historical influence in Nigerian politics is really being weakened by the APC’s ability to use tactical maneuvering to take advantage of these divisions due to the combination of elite rivalries and grassroots grievances. In order for Northern voices to remain relevant in the upcoming elections, it is essential that unified strategies be developed.
